The Rising Tide of Political Violence in America: Trends and Tensions in 2025

Posted on June 16, 2025, by Boncopia.com | Category: News & Politics | Sub-Category: U.S. News & Politics

The assassination of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman and the wounding of State Senator John Hoffman on June 14, 2025, mark a grim milestone in a growing wave of political violence in the United States. The suspect, Vance Luther Boelter, allegedly targeted Democrats, carrying a list of nearly 70 names, highlighting the intensifying threat to public officials. This incident, coupled with other recent attacks, underscores a troubling trend: political violence is becoming a persistent challenge to American democracy. At Boncopia.com, we analyze the latest data, historical context, and societal factors driving this surge, presenting the information in concise, engaging sections to inform and spark dialogue.

A Surge in Political Violence

Since the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, political violence has spiked significantly. Reuters reports over 300 incidents since then, the largest sustained increase since the 1970s, when over 450 cases were recorded in 1970 alone. Unlike the property-focused violence of that era, today’s attacks often target individuals. Notable recent incidents include:

• Minnesota Lawmaker Attacks (2025): Boelter killed Hortman and her husband, Mark, and wounded Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, in what authorities call a “politically motivated assassination.”

• Pennsylvania Governor’s Mansion Arson (2025): A man set fire to Governor Josh Shapiro’s residence, admitting he hated Shapiro and planned to attack him with a hammer.

• Trump Assassination Attempts (2024): Two failed attempts on former President Donald Trump’s life in July and September heightened national alarm.

These cases reflect a shift toward lone actors, radicalized online, targeting elected officials, their families, and campaign workers.

Key Trends Shaping Political Violence

The Bridging Divides Initiative (BDI) and other research groups identify several trends driving this escalation, many persisting into 2025:

1. Rise in Vigilante Violence: Vigilante acts, such as attacks on immigrants or political opponents, are increasing, fueled by rhetoric around issues like “mass deportation.” BDI notes public support for high-profile vigilantes, raising risks for marginalized groups.

2. Lone Actors Over Organized Groups: Unlike the 1970s, when groups like the Weather Underground were prominent, today’s violence is often committed by self-radicalized individuals. The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism (START) reports most incidents involve unaffiliated actors.

3. Polarization and Identity Conflicts: Political parties are increasingly divided along racial, cultural, and urban-rural lines, fostering an “us vs. them” mentality. This tribalism, per Harvard’s Lilliana Mason, fuels perceptions of existential threat, justifying violence.

4. Online Radicalization: Social media amplifies disinformation, such as QAnon or election fraud narratives, radicalizing individuals. BDI warns that loosened online safeguards in 2025 could exacerbate this trend.

5. Gun Culture and Accessibility: With 393 million firearms in the U.S., guns are a key factor in political violence. The AR-15, used in 10 of the 17 deadliest mass shootings, is a common weapon in such acts.

Public Support for Violence

Surveys reveal a growing acceptance of political violence, though most Americans reject it:

• PRRI Survey (2023): 23% of Americans, including 33% of Republicans, 22% of independents, and 13% of Democrats, agreed that “patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country,” up from 15% in 2021. Support was highest among white evangelicals (31%) and those believing the 2020 election was stolen (46%).

• Ipsos KnowledgePanel (2022): 32.8% of respondents justified violence for at least one of 17 political objectives, with 7.7% likely to be armed in such scenarios. Support declined with age, education, and income.

• 2023 Follow-Up Survey: Belief in an imminent civil war dropped from 13.7% to 5.7%, but support for election fraud narratives and QAnon persisted, signaling ongoing risks.

These attitudes, while held by a minority, create a volatile environment where lone actors can feel emboldened.

Historical Context: Cycles of Violence

Political violence in the U.S. follows cyclical patterns, often tied to social unrest, per the Vision of Humanity Institute:

• 1860s–1870s: Post-Civil War electoral violence was rampant, especially in the Reconstruction South.

• 1910s–1920s: Labor strikes and anarchist bombings reflected industrial tensions.

• 1960s–1970s: Civil rights struggles and anti-Vietnam War protests drove violence, often from leftist groups.

• 2010s–Present: Far-right terrorism surged 320% in the West from 2015 to 2019, with 28 of 57 U.S. terrorist events in 2018 linked to far-right extremists.

Today’s cycle, amplified by social media and polarization, differs in its focus on individuals and ideological targets rather than property.

Drivers of the Current Wave

Several factors fuel this surge, creating a “perfect storm” for violence:

1. Polarization: Racial, cultural, and geographic divides deepen tribalism, with parties sorting into distinct identity groups.

2. Disinformation: False narratives, like the “stolen” 2020 election, persist, with 46% of believers supporting violence. Social media, particularly with relaxed content moderation in 2025, amplifies these claims.

3. Economic and Cultural Grievances: Rural economic decline and perceived cultural erosion among white Christians foster resentment, often exploited by populist rhetoric.

4. Rhetoric from Leaders: Inflammatory language from figures across the spectrum, such as Trump’s calls for “retribution” or Biden’s “semi-fascism” remark, heightens tensions. Experts warn that elite rhetoric can trigger stochastic terrorism.

5. Weakened Institutions: Recent state laws granting legislatures more electoral power risk undermining democratic norms, inviting disputes resolved through violence.

Consequences for Democracy

Political violence threatens the fabric of American democracy:

• Chilling Civic Engagement: Threats deter local officials and poll workers, with one-third of election officials reporting feeling unsafe.

• Eroding Trust: Attacks on judges, lawmakers, and election processes weaken faith in institutions.

• Community Division: Violence pits neighbors against each other, as seen in Ohio, where political banners reflect deep divides.

• Economic Impact: Businesses face property damage and safety risks, with insured losses from riots exceeding $10 billion since 2010.

The Carnegie Endowment warns that unchecked violence could lead to “significant democratic decline.”

Mitigation Strategies

Despite the challenges, experts highlight effective responses:

1. Community Dialogue: Local leaders, as in Charleroi, Pennsylvania, countered anti-immigrant threats by promoting inclusivity, defusing tensions.

2. Bipartisan Condemnation: Leaders must unequivocally reject violence, as urged by Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro.

3. Strengthening Institutions: Transparent elections and neutral law enforcement can rebuild trust.

4. Media Literacy: Public campaigns to counter disinformation can reduce radicalization.

5. Social Norms: Harvard’s Ash Center emphasizes that communities rejecting violence are less likely to experience it.

Looking Ahead

As the U.S. heads into 2025, the risk of political violence remains high, particularly with policies like proposed mass deportations potentially sparking protests. The Minnesota attacks highlight the human cost of polarization, but the decline in organized extremist activity and widespread public rejection of violence offer hope. At Boncopia.com, we believe informed dialogue is key to resilience. Here are three questions to spark discussion:

1. How can political leaders tone down rhetoric without compromising free speech?

2. What role should social media platforms play in curbing disinformation fueling violence?

3. How can communities foster unity to prevent local conflicts from escalating?

Share your thoughts in the comments or on our social media. Let’s build a safer, more cohesive democracy.

Sources: Reuters, Bridging Divides Initiative, Carnegie Endowment, PRRI, Ipsos KnowledgePanel, Vision of Humanity, PBS News, Posts on X