The Global Race for Rare Earth Minerals: Powering the Future, Shaping Geopolitics

Introduction: The Hidden Elements Driving the Modern World

Rare earth elements (REEs)—a group of 17 metallic elements including the lanthanides, scandium, and yttrium—are the unsung heroes of modern technology. From smartphones and electric vehicles to wind turbines and defense systems, these minerals are critical to the global economy. However, their supply is concentrated in a few countries, with China dominating production, sparking a fierce geopolitical race. Recent events, such as French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Greenland on June 15, 2025, highlight the strategic importance of REEs, particularly in regions like the Arctic. This article, under Boncopia.com’s Global Analysis subcategory, explores the role of rare earths, their global supply dynamics, and the implications for technology, security, and sustainability.

What Are Rare Earth Elements?

Despite their name, rare earth elements are not particularly scarce. Cerium, for instance, is the 25th most abundant element in Earth’s crust, more common than copper. The “rare” label stems from the difficulty in finding economically viable, concentrated deposits. REEs include light elements like neodymium and cerium, used in magnets and catalysts, and heavy elements like dysprosium and terbium, critical for high-tech applications but harder to extract. Their unique magnetic, luminescent, and conductive properties make them essential for over 200 products, from EVs to fighter jets.

Global demand for REEs is surging, driven by the transition to clean energy and advanced technology. The International Energy Agency projects REE demand could triple by 2040 due to renewable energy needs. Yet, their extraction and refining are complex, costly, and environmentally intensive, creating supply chain vulnerabilities.

The Global Supply Landscape: China’s Dominance

China controls the rare earth market, producing 70% of global mined REEs (270,000 metric tons of 390,000 in 2024) and 87% of refined REEs. The Bayan Obo mine in Inner Mongolia is the world’s largest, owned by the state-run Baotou Iron and Steel Group. China’s dominance stems from decades of investment, lax environmental regulations, and strategic consolidation, reducing its rare earth companies to four major state-owned enterprises.

Other key producers include the United States (45,000 metric tons in 2024, primarily from California’s Mountain Pass mine), Australia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Brazil, with 21 million metric tons in reserves, is poised to expand production via projects like Serra Verde’s Pela Ema deposit. Europe currently has no active REE mines, though Sweden’s Per Geijer deposit, discovered in 2023, holds over 1 million metric tons of resources. Canada boasts 15.2 million metric tons in reserves but lacks commercial production.

Geopolitical Stakes: A New Resource War

The concentration of REE supply in China has sparked global concerns, especially amid U.S.-China trade tensions. In December 2023, China banned exports of rare earth magnet technology, and by April 2025, it imposed restrictions on seven REEs critical for defense and automotive industries. These moves, seen as retaliatory against U.S. tariffs, have disrupted supply chains, with one European car parts CEO noting “full panic” in the industry. Posts on X highlight China’s 95% control over heavy REEs like dysprosium, for which the U.S. has zero production.

The U.S. is responding with initiatives to bolster domestic supply. The Department of Energy allocated $17.5 million in April 2024 for REE extraction from coal by-products, and MP Materials is expanding its Texas facility to produce rare earth magnets. President Trump’s 2025 executive order invoked wartime powers to boost critical mineral production, but the U.S. lags behind, with only 1.9 million metric tons in reserves compared to China’s 44 million.

Other nations are also diversifying. India, with 35% of global beach sand mineral deposits, joined the U.S.-led Minerals Security Partnership in 2023 to develop REE supply chains. Central Asian countries and Nigeria are exploring joint ventures with France and others to reduce China dependency.

The Arctic Connection: Greenland’s Role

Greenland, with its vast REE deposits, is a focal point in this race. Its strategic Arctic location and resources have drawn U.S. attention, with Trump reiterating interest in acquiring the territory in 2025, prompting Macron’s visit to reaffirm European support. Greenland’s deposits, particularly in the Kvanefjord and Kringlerne projects, could supply heavy REEs critical for clean energy and defense. However, local opposition to U.S. annexation is strong, with 56% of Americans and 77% of French against it.

The Arctic’s melting ice, warming at three to four times the global average, is unlocking access to these resources while opening new shipping routes like Russia’s Northern Sea Route, which handles 5% of global shipping traffic. This has intensified competition, with Russia and China collaborating on Arctic projects, raising Western concerns about influence in the region.

Environmental and Economic Challenges

REE mining and refining are environmentally damaging, involving chemical leaching and solvent extraction that can pollute groundwater and air. Myanmar’s unregulated mining has devastated border regions, while U.S. coal ash ponds, containing REEs, pose risks of contamination. Startups like Rivalia Chemical are exploring REE extraction from coal ash to address both environmental and supply issues.

Economically, China’s control allows it to manipulate prices, often selling REEs at “earth” prices to maintain dominance, as noted by China’s Ministry of Industry. U.S. tariffs, including 145% on Chinese imports in 2025, have raised costs for REE-dependent industries, risking inflation. The global REE market, valued at $15.3 billion in 2023, is projected to reach $30.1 billion by 2032, driven by EV and renewable energy demand.

Innovation and Alternatives: The Path Forward

To reduce dependency, nations are investing in recycling and alternative sources. Recycling REEs from electronics and industrial waste is gaining traction, though it currently meets less than 1% of demand. Research into substitutes, such as non-REE magnets, is ongoing but limited, as alternatives are less effective for cutting-edge applications.

The U.S., Canada, and Australia are collaborating via the Critical Minerals Mapping Initiative to identify new deposits, with promising sites like Texas’ Round Top Mountain and Alaska’s Bokan-Dotson Ridge. Meanwhile, Cambridge University’s global REE atlas project aims to pinpoint viable deposits by analyzing lithosphere patterns.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

Rare earth elements are the backbone of the modern world, powering technologies that drive progress and security. However, their concentrated supply, environmental risks, and geopolitical tensions create a complex challenge. China’s dominance, coupled with rising demand and Arctic opportunities, has intensified the global race for control. Macron’s Greenland visit underscores the need for cooperative, sustainable approaches to secure these critical resources. As nations strive for self-sufficiency, the balance between innovation, environmental stewardship, and diplomacy will shape the future of the REE market.

Thought-Provoking Questions for Readers:

1. How can the U.S. balance its strategic need for rare earths with environmental concerns in mining and refining?

2. Should Greenland prioritize economic partnerships with Europe or explore opportunities with other global players like the U.S. or China?

3. Can recycling and alternative materials realistically reduce global reliance on mined REEs in the next decade?

4. What role should international cooperation play in ensuring equitable access to rare earth resources?