Olmert and Qudwa’s Bold Vision: Is the Two-State Solution Still Alive Amid Gaza’s War?

Introduction: A Ray of Hope in a Dark Conflict

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, intensified by the devastating war in Gaza, seems further from resolution than ever. Yet, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Palestinian Foreign Minister Nasser al-Qudwa are defying the odds, passionately advocating for a two-state solution as the only viable path to peace. In a recent joint appearance on FRANCE 24, they outlined a detailed plan to end the war and establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel, despite the ongoing violence and deep-seated mistrust. With a UN conference on the two-state solution set for June 17-20, 2025, in New York, their proposal has sparked renewed debate. Can their vision break the cycle of despair in Gaza and revive a long-dormant peace process? This blog post explores their plan, its challenges, and its potential to reshape the Middle East, offering hope for a region weary of war.

The Gaza War: A Humanitarian and Political Crisis

The war in Gaza, sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack that killed 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages, has unleashed unprecedented devastation. Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 54,880 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and displaced 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Infrastructure lies in ruins, and humanitarian aid struggles to reach those in need due to blockades and ongoing fighting. Posts on X capture the despair: one user describes Gaza as a “death spiral,” while another argues that peace is impossible without dismantling Hamas’s control.

For Olmert and Qudwa, the war underscores the urgency of their proposal. Olmert has called Israel’s expanded military operations since March 2024 “illegitimate” and a “crime,” arguing they serve no strategic purpose and risk further loss of life, including hostages and Israeli soldiers. Qudwa, nephew of the late Yasser Arafat, emphasizes that both sides are “tired of war” and yearn for an alternative to violence. Their joint vision, first signed on July 17, 2024, seeks to address both the immediate crisis and the long-term conflict.

Olmert and Qudwa’s Two-State Proposal: A Roadmap to Peace

Olmert and Qudwa’s plan, rooted in Olmert’s 2008 proposal to Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, envisions two states based on pre-1967 borders with a 4.4% land swap. Key elements include:

• Ceasefire and Hostage Release: An immediate end to hostilities in Gaza, with the release of all Israeli hostages and a negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners.

• Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza: Israeli troops would fully withdraw, replaced by a Palestinian technocratic council linked to the PA to govern Gaza.

• Territorial Solution: Israel would annex 4.4% of the West Bank, including major settlement blocs, while Palestine would receive equivalent territory from Israel, ensuring territorial contiguity via a corridor linking Gaza and the West Bank.

• Jerusalem’s Status: A Palestinian capital would be established in East Jerusalem’s Arab neighborhoods, with the Old City administered by a five-state trusteeship including Israel and Palestine.

• Rebuilding Gaza: A donors’ conference would mobilize international funds to reconstruct Gaza, with wealthy nations playing a significant role.

• Elections and Governance: Within 24-35 months, elections would be held in the West Bank and Gaza to establish a unified Palestinian government committed to peace.

Olmert, who served as Israel’s prime minister from 2006 to 2009, and Qudwa, a respected Palestinian diplomat, argue that this plan is “practical, doable, and real.” They presented it at events like the Haaretz Conference in London and a Paris think tank, gaining traction ahead of the UN conference.

The UN Conference: A Catalyst for Change?

The UN High-Level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine, set for June 17-20, 2025, in New York, provides a critical platform for Olmert and Qudwa’s ideas. Co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, the conference aims to produce an “action-oriented outcome document” to advance a two-state solution. Its eight thematic roundtables will address security, economic viability, humanitarian aid, and peace narratives, with participation from countries like Qatar and Canada.

Olmert has urged the U.S., Israel’s key ally, to leverage its influence to push for peace, suggesting President Donald Trump publicly tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “Bibi, enough is enough.” Qudwa stresses that ending the war is a prerequisite for shifting public opinion, noting that both societies are exhausted and ready for a new direction. Posts on X echo this sentiment, with one user praising the plan as a “beacon of hope” amid Gaza’s chaos.

Why Now? The Case for Urgency

Olmert and Qudwa argue that the war’s brutality has created a unique moment for peace. The staggering human toll—54,880 Palestinian deaths and 429 Israeli soldiers killed—has fueled widespread fatigue. Olmert contends that Israel achieved its military objectives against Hamas “a long time ago” and that continued fighting serves only Netanyahu’s political interests, not national security. Qudwa believes the war’s horrors could push both sides to embrace negotiations, as “people on both sides have become tired of the war.”

Public support for a two-state solution, however, remains low. A 2023 Gallup poll showed only 24% of Palestinians and 28.6% of Israeli Jews back the idea, down from 59% and 50% a decade ago. Yet, Olmert remains optimistic, noting that 30% support among Israelis is a starting point to build on. The UN conference could amplify this momentum by rallying international support and pressuring leaders to act.

Challenges to the Two-State Vision

Despite its promise, Olmert and Qudwa’s plan faces significant obstacles:

1. Israeli Opposition: Netanyahu’s government, backed by a Knesset resolution in July 2024 opposing Palestinian statehood (68-9 vote), rejects the two-state solution as a “reward for terrorism.” Olmert’s criticism of Netanyahu’s “failure” to prevent October 7 and his focus on personal power has deepened this divide.

2. Hamas’s Role: Hamas, which controls Gaza and rejects Israel’s existence, remains a major hurdle. While its 2017 charter accepts a Palestinian state within 1967 borders, it does not recognize Israel, complicating negotiations.

3. Palestinian Divisions: The PA’s lack of legitimacy and control over Gaza weakens its negotiating power. Qudwa’s plan for a technocratic council aims to address this, but implementation is uncertain.

4. Settlement Expansion: Israel’s approval of 22 new West Bank settlements in 2024, the largest in decades, violates international law and erodes Palestinian territory.

5. Public Skepticism: Both societies are traumatized by violence, with X posts reflecting distrust. One user argues that “Hamas must be eradicated” before peace talks, while another doubts Israel’s willingness to cede land.

Olmert acknowledges the need for new leadership on both sides, calling the current Israeli government’s strategy “indefensible.” Qudwa agrees, noting that societal attitudes must shift post-war for the plan to succeed.

The Role of International Support

The UN conference’s success hinges on global backing, particularly from the U.S. and Arab states. Olmert believes the U.S., with its unmatched influence over Israel, could tip the scales by endorsing the plan. Saudi Arabia’s co-chairmanship signals Arab willingness to support a Palestinian state, potentially tied to normalization with Israel. France’s push for multilateral diplomacy adds momentum, with Foreign Minister Anne-Claire Legendre calling for “deeds, not words.”

However, U.S. reluctance to support unilateral recognition of Palestine, as expressed in a recent diplomatic cable, could hinder progress. X posts highlight this tension, with one user urging the U.S. to “stop enabling Netanyahu,” while another warns against rewarding Hamas.

A Path Forward: Hope Amid Hardship

Olmert and Qudwa’s plan is a bold attempt to revive a fading dream. By addressing immediate needs—ceasefire, hostage release, and Gaza’s reconstruction—while outlining a long-term vision for two states, it offers a pragmatic framework. The UN conference provides a critical platform to build international consensus and pressure reluctant leaders. As Olmert told Vatican News, “There is no alternative but the path of two states—independent, free, and at peace.”

The road ahead is fraught, but the war’s toll may create an opening for change. With global attention focused on New York next week, Olmert and Qudwa’s vision could spark the dialogue needed to move from despair to hope.

Thought Questions for Readers

1. Can Olmert and Qudwa’s plan overcome the deep mistrust between Israelis and Palestinians to gain traction?

2. How critical is U.S. support for the success of the UN conference and the two-state solution?

3. Is it realistic to integrate or replace Hamas in Gaza’s governance to advance peace talks?

4. What role should Arab states like Saudi Arabia play in pushing for a ceasefire and Palestinian statehood?