Israel’s Strikes on Iran: How They’re Shaking Up Global Natural Gas Prices

By Boncopia Staff | June 13, 2025 | Global News

The Middle East, a perennial hotspot of geopolitical tension, is once again rattling global markets. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a series of unprecedented airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and top military commanders. Iran retaliated with a barrage of ballistic missiles, raising fears of a full-scale war. While the conflict has spiked oil prices, its impact on global natural gas markets is equally critical, given the region’s role in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Here’s a detailed look at the conflict, its effects on natural gas prices, and what it means for the world.

The Scale of Israel’s Assault

Israel’s operation was a bold escalation, striking over 100 targets, including the Natanz nuclear facility, a key hub of Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Iranian officials reported damage to Natanz’s above-ground plant, with radiological contamination contained, per Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. Other nuclear sites in Isfahan and Fordow were also hit, though the extent of damage remains unclear.

The strikes also targeted Iran’s military leadership, killing IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, Chief of Staff Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, and Emergency Forces Commander Gholam Rashid, alongside six nuclear scientists. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the operation a necessary strike to “roll back the Iranian threat,” accusing Tehran of nearing nuclear weaponization—a claim Iran denies.

Iran’s Retaliation and Internal Struggles

Iran responded swiftly, launching hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israeli military bases and civilian areas, including Tel Aviv. Israel’s Iron Dome intercepted many, but 41 people were injured, two critically. Iranian media claimed one Israeli fighter jet was downed, though Israel has not confirmed this.

Posts on X suggest Iran’s regime is in disarray, with Israeli kamikaze drones—possibly deployed via Mossad operatives—disabling air defenses, delaying a cohesive counterattack. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed a “bitter and painful” response, but the loss of key commanders and damaged infrastructure has left Tehran scrambling. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the strikes a “declaration of war,” signaling further retaliation.

Global Reactions: Urging Restraint

The international community is on edge. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the escalation, calling for “maximum restraint.” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned that attacks on nuclear facilities could have “grave consequences.” France, Germany, the UK, Australia, and China urged de-escalation, while Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s actions, reflecting regional divisions.

U.S. President Donald Trump described the strikes as “very successful” while denying U.S. involvement. He reiterated support for Israel and pressed Iran to accept a nuclear deal, hinting the strikes stemmed from Tehran’s defiance. U.S. forces are aiding Israel in intercepting missiles, raising questions about America’s role.

Natural Gas Markets: A Muted but Tense Response

The Israel-Iran conflict has introduced volatility to global natural gas markets, though the response has been more subdued than expected given the region’s critical role in LNG exports. The Middle East, particularly Qatar, accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint Iran could disrupt. On June 13, European refined product markets surged, with traders eyeing potential supply chain disruptions.

Unlike oil, natural gas prices have not seen dramatic spikes. U.S. Henry Hub spot prices, a key benchmark, were at $2.28/MMBtu in late 2024, down 11% after earlier Israel-Iran tensions cooled. On June 13, prices ticked up slightly, reflecting market jitters, but remained below $3/MMBtu. This muted reaction stems from several factors:

1. Limited Direct Impact: Neither Israel nor Iran is a major natural gas exporter. Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan fields produce about 22 billion cubic meters annually (3.9% of global LNG supply), mainly for domestic use and exports to Egypt and Jordan. Iran exports a modest 4 million tonnes per annum of LNG-equivalent gas via pipeline to Turkey. Disruptions to these flows would primarily affect regional markets, not global supply.

2. Qatar’s Role: Qatar, a top LNG exporter, relies on the Strait of Hormuz for shipments to Asia and Europe. While Iran has threatened to block the strait, such a move is unlikely due to its economic reliance on oil and gas exports. Qatar’s “fast pass” through regional conflicts has kept LNG flows stable, though increased security measures could slow deliveries.

3. Global Supply Buffers: The U.S., the world’s largest natural gas producer, averaged 102.8 Bcf/d in late 2024, near summer highs. Europe’s gas storage is near full capacity, and Russia’s pipeline gas to Turkey could offset any Iranian disruptions. These buffers reduce the risk of global shortages.

However, risks remain. Iran’s deputy IRGC commander, Ali Fadavi, threatened to target Israel’s offshore gas fields, such as Tamar and Leviathan, if Israel strikes Iran’s energy infrastructure. Such an attack could disrupt exports to Egypt, indirectly affecting LNG supply to Europe. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, backed by Iran, have already raised costs, with dry bulk traffic through the Suez Canal down 50% year-over-year. A broader conflict involving Gulf states like Qatar or the UAE could spike LNG prices to $13–$15/MMBtu, especially with rising Asian demand.

Analysts at Wood Mackenzie note that markets are pricing in these risks but betting on minimal disruptions. Still, prolonged conflict or a Strait of Hormuz blockade could cause “substantial upside” in prices, impacting households through higher energy bills.

Why Now? Strategic Context

Israel’s strikes were timed to exploit a weakened Iran. Prior attacks in October 2024 degraded Iran’s air defenses and missile production, creating a window for action. Intelligence suggesting Iran was nearing a nuclear breakthrough likely prompted Netanyahu’s decision, overriding U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. The use of smuggled drones and Mossad operatives underscores Israel’s long-term planning to neutralize Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities.

What’s Next for the Middle East?

The conflict’s trajectory is uncertain. Israel’s vow to continue until Iran’s threat is neutralized suggests further strikes are possible. Iran’s missile attacks signal retaliatory intent, potentially targeting U.S. bases or regional allies. Diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Iran talks in Oman, face collapse, while flight diversions and Israel’s closure of diplomatic missions indicate preparations for prolonged hostilities.

For global citizens, the stakes are high. Higher natural gas prices could increase heating and electricity costs, particularly in Europe and Asia. The human toll is stark, with Iran reporting 78 deaths and 329 injuries, and Israel treating dozens of missile strike victims.

Engaging the Reader: Why This Matters

This conflict could hit your energy bills. While natural gas prices have remained stable so far, escalation could drive up costs for heating, electricity, and goods reliant on energy-intensive manufacturing. The Middle East’s role in LNG supply chains makes it a linchpin for global energy security. As we monitor this crisis, consider how geopolitical tensions shape your daily life and the global economy.

Thought Questions to Ponder

1. Can global LNG markets absorb disruptions from a prolonged Israel-Iran conflict, or are price spikes inevitable?

2. Should Israel avoid targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure to prevent retaliatory strikes on its own gas fields?

3. How can consumers and governments prepare for potential increases in natural gas prices due to Middle East tensions?

Stay tuned to Boncopia’s Global News for updates on this evolving crisis. Share your thoughts below—how do you see this conflict impacting energy markets?