Canadian Tourism to the U.S. Plummets in 2025: What’s Driving the Decline?

Posted on Boncopia.com | Category: News & Politics | Subcategory: U.S. News & Politics

The U.S.-Canada border has long been a bustling corridor of cross-border tourism, with millions of Canadians flocking to American destinations for shopping, vacations, and leisure. However, new data reveals a sharp decline in Canadian visitors to the U.S. in 2025, leaving businesses like Bluff Point Golf Resort in Plattsburgh, New York, reeling. Owner Paul Dame reports that his parking lot, once filled with 20 to 30 cars from Quebec and Ontario daily, now sees just one or two. This dramatic drop is not isolated but part of a broader trend impacting border towns and major U.S. tourism hubs alike. What’s behind this shift, and what does it mean for the U.S. economy? Let’s dive into the numbers, causes, and consequences.

A Steep Decline in Canadian Visitors

According to Statistics Canada, Canadian residents made just 1.7 million return trips by motor vehicle from the U.S. in July 2025, a staggering 37% decline compared to July 2024. This follows a consistent pattern, with June 2025 seeing a 33% drop in car travel and a 22% decrease in air travel from Canada. The U.S. International Trade Administration confirms that Canadian visits between January and May 2025 totaled just over 7 million, a 17% decrease from the same period in 2024. These numbers are alarming, considering Canada has long been the top source of international tourists to the U.S., with 20.4 million visits in 2024 generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs.

The impact is felt most acutely in border states like New York, Montana, and Vermont. In Plattsburgh, just 25 minutes from the Canadian border, businesses like Bluff Point Golf Resort are struggling to adapt. “It’s tough because we’ve developed this relationship with the cross-border economy,” Dame told NPR. “And now here we are, the rug getting pulled out from underneath us.” Similar stories echo across the region, from Niagara Falls to Montana’s vacation towns, where Canadian credit card spending has plummeted by up to 37% in some areas.

Why Are Canadians Staying Away?

Several factors are driving this decline, with political and economic tensions at the forefront. In early 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump’s provocative rhetoric, including vows to make Canada the “51st state” and the imposition of steep tariffs on Canadian goods, strained bilateral relations. These actions prompted a backlash, with then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urging Canadians to vacation domestically instead of traveling south. “Now is the time to choose Canada,” Trudeau said, encouraging exploration of Canada’s national parks and historical sites.

The strong U.S. dollar has also made travel to the U.S. more expensive for Canadians, deterring budget-conscious travelers. Additionally, reports of over 50 Canadian tourists being detained at the U.S. border have fueled negative sentiment. Charlie Angus, a former Canadian minister, called for a travel warning, citing concerns over U.S. border policies and a perceived lack of respect for individual rights. These incidents have led to a broader reevaluation of the U.S. as a travel destination, with many Canadians opting for domestic or alternative international destinations.

Economic Ripple Effects

The decline in Canadian tourism is hitting U.S. border cities hard. In Montana, key border crossings like Sweetgrass and Roosville reported drops of 28% and 29%, respectively, in 2025. Local businesses in Kalispell and Whitefish have seen Canadian credit card spending fall by 25-37% monthly, with cancellations of large-scale hotel bookings and youth sporting events costing tens of thousands in revenue. For example, one Montana hotel lost $38,000 from a single canceled Canadian tour group reservation.

In Western New York, border crossings at the Peace Bridge and Rainbow Bridge are down 22% and 29%, respectively, impacting local businesses like Mario’s Pizza in Niagara Falls. Tourism Economics estimates that a 10% drop in Canadian visitors could result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses nationwide, but current trends suggest losses could be triple or quadruple that forecast. The U.S. Travel Association warns of a potential $12.5 billion economic hit in 2025, a stark contrast to earlier expectations of a 9% increase in international visitors.

Efforts to Mitigate the Slump

Some U.S. regions are fighting back with targeted campaigns. Maine Gov. Janet Mills visited Canada in June 2025 to promote tourism, and the state installed “Bienvenue, Canadiens!” road signs to welcome visitors. In Buffalo, Visit Buffalo Niagara is launching billboards proclaiming “Buffalo loves Canada” to lure Canadian tourists back. Meanwhile, businesses like Bluff Point Golf Resort are redirecting marketing efforts to domestic markets in New York and Vermont. However, analysts at TD Economics are skeptical about a quick recovery, citing ongoing trade tensions and a lack of trust.

On the Canadian side, tourism is also suffering, though less severely. American car trips to Canada dropped 10.4% in June 2025, and air travel fell by 0.7%. Canadian businesses, like duty-free shops in Quebec, report up to 50% declines in revenue. Despite these challenges, cities like Calgary and Toronto are launching campaigns to attract American visitors, emphasizing cultural diversity and favorable exchange rates.

A Shifting Travel Landscape

The decline in Canadian tourism reflects a deeper shift in cross-border dynamics. Political rhetoric, economic pressures, and border policies have eroded the trust that once fueled robust travel between the two nations. While campaigns like Brand USA’s “America the Beautiful” aim to restore confidence, analysts predict that without a resolution to trade tensions, the downturn may persist.

For now, U.S. border communities are adapting by targeting domestic travelers. In Montana, for instance, domestic visitors to Glacier National Park are helping offset losses from Canadian tourists. Yet, the absence of Canadian visitors, who accounted for 8% of Montana’s tourism revenue in 2023, leaves a significant gap. The broader U.S. tourism industry, which relies on Canadians for a quarter of its international visitors, faces an uncertain future.

Looking Ahead

As both nations navigate this challenging period, the hope is that diplomatic efforts and economic stabilization will restore the vibrant cross-border tourism that has long defined U.S.-Canada relations. For now, businesses like Bluff Point Golf Resort are left grappling with empty parking lots and a new reality.

Thought Questions:

1. How can U.S. border states balance attracting domestic tourists while rebuilding trust with Canadian visitors?

2. What role should diplomacy play in reversing the decline in cross-border tourism?

3. Are there alternative international markets the U.S. could target to offset the loss of Canadian tourists?